See roughly what a SPY move would do to a call (or put) before you buy. Black-Scholes estimate, right in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Set the trade up, then read the P/L table for a range of SPY moves.
Or set expiry by date:Buy Expires
Hold:
+ pts (~2 for 2-3 DTE, ~5 for 0DTE)
Model price now: —Your basis: —/ctPosition cost: —Delta: —Theta: —/day
SPY move
SPY price
Exit price
P/L (6 ct)
Estimate only. Real fills depend on the actual option-chain IV, bid-ask spread, and timing. A volatility crush at the open can make a call worth less than this even if SPY rises. Not financial advice.
Quick tool
Expected value & position size
This takes the option setup above and replays it over all 83 historical setups (the full 2-year backtest) of the type you choose — selling into the peak pop on a hit, bailing at the candle close on a miss. It shows the average (“expected”) result, then what the Kelly formula suggests for sizing against your portfolio. Same SPY price, strike, expiry, IV and hold you set in the estimator above.
Setups in sample: —Win rate: —Avg gain on a win: —Avg result on a miss: —
Expected value / trade: —of premiumSuggested wager: —≈ —Expected $ / trade at that size: —
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Kelly assumes future trades behave like this 83-setup sample. Most traders use a fraction of Kelly to ride out variance. This is a model, not advice. Never wager money you can’t afford to lose.
What are my odds?
Describe your trade — get the win rate
Tell the calculator what your setup looks like, using the menus below. It finds every historical setup that matches and shows how they did — win rate, the typical move, and what a 15-delta call would have done. Leave anything on Any to ignore it. Stack as many as you want.
Two of these need a word:
Push strength is how big the green push candle was. The detector measures the push candle’s full range (high minus low) and calls it strong if that range is at or above the typical (median) push, weak if below. A bigger push means more momentum behind the setup — it’s the single biggest tell in the data (— win for strong vs — for weak).
How it opens is for when you’re still holding overnight and don’t know the open yet. Pick where you think the next candle will open versus your entry. Nervous it gaps down? Choose Opens lower and see how those actually played out.
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Strong = the push candle’s range (high − low) is at least —, the 2-year median. The verdict auto-fills the Push strength menu below.
Matching setups: —Win rate (hit +0.20%): —Popped green at all: —
15-delta call, first hour (median): —… green that first hour: —
Best time to sell: —Green at the open: —Green by ~1hr in: —
Suggested stop (−35% of premium): —/ctRisk to that stop (— ct): —
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Based on the full backtest of every flagged setup (Jul 2023 – present, Yahoo hourly data). Small samples get noisy — watch the match count. Past results only, not a prediction. Not financial advice.
Futures
Futures contract specs
If you trade the pause pattern on index futures instead of SPY options, here is what each contract is worth. Per point = dollars per 1.00 index point, per contract. Tick = the smallest price step; tick value = what that step is worth. Margins are intraday, broker-set and move around — treat them as ballpark.
Contract
Per point
Tick size
Tick value
Day margin (approx)
/ES and /MES track the S&P 500 (~SPY × 10). /NQ and /MNQ track the Nasdaq-100; /YM and /MYM the Dow. A micro is 1/10 the size of its matching mini. Margins vary by broker and volatility. Not financial advice.
Quick tool
Futures sizer & P/L
Set a contract, your entry, and a stop and target in points. It shows what each contract is worth, your dollar risk and reward, the reward-to-risk ratio, and how many contracts fit a chosen account risk. Per-side, before fees.
$ per point: —Tick value: —Day margin: —
Risk to stop: —Reward at target: —Reward : risk: —
Suggested size: —Risk at that size: —
Sized so a stop-out loses about your chosen % of the account, using the stop distance above.
1 point = — ticks on this contract. Futures losses can exceed margin. Not financial advice.
Quick tool
Translate the pattern to futures
The backtest is in SPY percent moves. The S&P futures move the same percent, so this turns a percent move into futures points and dollars. /ES and /MES sit near SPY × 10 (SPY 758 → ~7580). Pick a move, or tap a preset, and see what it is worth.
Presets:
That move = —Per contract: —On your size: —
Futures track the index, which sits a hair off SPY × 10 (fair-value basis), so treat the dollar figure as close, not exact. Not financial advice.
New · beta
Analyze a chart photo
Snap or upload a SPY 4-hour chart and let Claude check it for the pause pattern, call it clean or risky, judge the push, and give you a plan (when to sell, where to stop). Your image is sent only to Anthropic for this one analysis — it is not stored.
Tap to choose a chart — or drag an image here
No AI or key needed for this — it runs the exact pause-pattern detector on that day’s real 4-hour candles. Yahoo data reaches back about 2 years.
The photo reader uses Claude and can misread candles, so sanity-check it. The date lookup is exact. Not financial advice. The photo reader needs the site’s ANTHROPIC_API_KEY configured; the date lookup does not.