Three tools for sizing a trade on the pause pattern: a Black-Scholes option estimator, a “what are my odds?” trade-profile lookup, and an expected-value & position-size calculator — all built on the 2-year backtest. New to the pattern? See Strategy & Stats.
New · beta
Analyze a chart photo
Snap or upload a SPY 4-hour chart and let Claude check it for the pause pattern, call it clean or risky, judge the push, and give you a plan (when to sell, where to stop). Your image is sent only to Anthropic for this one analysis — it is not stored.
Tap to choose a chart — or drag an image here
No AI or key needed for this — it runs the exact pause-pattern detector on that day’s real 4-hour candles. Yahoo data reaches back about 2 years.
The photo reader uses Claude and can misread candles, so sanity-check it. The date lookup is exact. Not financial advice. The photo reader needs the site’s ANTHROPIC_API_KEY configured; the date lookup does not.
Quick tool
Option estimator
See roughly what a SPY move would do to a call (or put) before you buy. Black-Scholes estimate, right in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Set the trade up, then read the P/L table for a range of SPY moves.
Or set expiry by date:Buy Expires
Hold:
+ pts (~2 for 2-3 DTE, ~5 for 0DTE)
Model price now: —Your basis: —/ctPosition cost: —Delta: —Theta: —/day
SPY move
SPY price
Exit price
P/L (6 ct)
Estimate only. Real fills depend on the actual option-chain IV, bid-ask spread, and timing. A volatility crush at the open can make a call worth less than this even if SPY rises. Not financial advice.
What are my odds?
Describe your trade — get the win rate
Tell the calculator what your setup looks like, using the menus below. It finds every historical setup that matches and shows how they did — win rate, the typical move, and what a 15-delta call would have done. Leave anything on Any to ignore it. Stack as many as you want.
Two of these need a word:
Push strength is how big the green push candle was. The detector measures the push candle’s full range (high minus low) and calls it strong if that range is at or above the typical (median) push, weak if below. A bigger push means more momentum behind the setup — it’s the single biggest tell in the data (— win for strong vs — for weak).
How it opens is for when you’re still holding overnight and don’t know the open yet. Pick where you think the next candle will open versus your entry. Nervous it gaps down? Choose Opens lower and see how those actually played out.
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Strong = the push candle’s range (high − low) is at least —, the 2-year median. The verdict auto-fills the Push strength menu below.
Matching setups: —Win rate (hit +0.20%): —Popped green at all: —
15-delta call, first hour (median): —… green that first hour: —
Best time to sell: —Green at the open: —Green by ~1hr in: —
Suggested stop (−35% of premium): —/ctRisk to that stop (— ct): —
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Based on the full backtest of every flagged setup (Jul 2023 – present, Yahoo hourly data). Small samples get noisy — watch the match count. Past results only, not a prediction. Not financial advice.
Quick tool
Expected value & position size
This takes the option setup above and replays it over all 83 historical setups (the full 2-year backtest) of the type you choose — selling into the peak pop on a hit, bailing at the candle close on a miss. It shows the average (“expected”) result, then what the Kelly formula suggests for sizing against your portfolio. Same SPY price, strike, expiry, IV and hold you set in the estimator above.
Setups in sample: —Win rate: —Avg gain on a win: —Avg result on a miss: —
Expected value / trade: —of premiumSuggested wager: —≈ —Expected $ / trade at that size: —
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Kelly assumes future trades behave like this 83-setup sample. Most traders use a fraction of Kelly to ride out variance. This is a model, not advice. Never wager money you can’t afford to lose.